Possible scenario
Deterrence Holds
45% Chance
NATO continues to judge a deliberate Russian attack on alliance territory as unlikely in the near term. Moscow keeps using threatening rhetoric and probes air defenses, but deterrence, surveillance, and forward deployments prevent a direct military clash.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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