Possible scenario
Russian Retaliation Escalates
25% Chance
Moscow responds with a larger missile and drone barrage against Ukrainian power, rail, and defense-industrial sites. The escalation remains inside the Russia-Ukraine theater but increases near-term market concern about infrastructure disruption and Western resupply needs.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +3.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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