Possible scenario
Contained Missile Exchange
45% Chance
Ukraine continues limited domestic ballistic missile use against Russian military logistics, air-defense nodes, and ammunition depots. Moscow condemns the strikes but treats them as an extension of the existing war rather than a threshold requiring direct NATO confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.