Possible scenario
Controls Tighten Again
20% Chance
The smuggling case becomes evidence for export-control hawks that existing licensing and H20-style carveouts are too porous. The Biden administration or its successor tightens China AI accelerator rules, affecting Nvidia and other U.S. chip designers.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.5%
Tickers
- NVDA-4.5%
- AMD-2.0%
- AVGO-0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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