Possible scenario
Putin Declines Invitation
30% Chance
Putin ultimately decides the legal, security, and political risks of a U.S. trip are too high. Moscow preserves the option of talks through lower-level officials, limiting market fallout.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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