Possible scenario
Managed G20 Attendance
35% Chance
Putin accepts the U.S. invitation and attends the Miami G20 under a tightly managed protocol arrangement. The visit is treated as a diplomatic opening but not as a normalization of U.S.-Russia relations, with sanctions and the ICC warrant left unresolved.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.5%
- Energy -0.3%
- Technology +0.3%
- Consumer Services
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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