Possible scenario
Legal Backlash Derails
20% Chance
The invitation becomes entangled in the ICC arrest warrant, congressional objections, and pressure from Ukraine and European allies. The U.S. tries to balance summit-host obligations with legal and alliance politics, creating a higher-risk diplomatic path.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.6%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.