Possible scenario
Caretaker Coalition Stabilizes
25% Chance
Romania's pro-European presidency moves quickly to prevent the Guilfoyle controversy from becoming a broader legitimacy crisis. A caretaker or technocratic cabinet backed by PSD, PNL, USR, and minority deputies keeps EU and NATO commitments intact.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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