Possible scenario
Convoy Escalation Cycle
20% Chance
The United States, Gulf states, and allies expand escorts or retaliatory actions to keep crude moving. This can either restore deterrence or trigger another round of Iranian and militia responses.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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