Possible scenario
Attacks Interrupt Transit
30% Chance
Iran-aligned forces or Iranian naval units keep pressure on commercial shipping with another limited attack or credible threat. Flows continue, but insurers, crews, and charterers slow sailings enough to rebuild the oil risk premium.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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