Possible scenario
Adapted Flows Hold
38% Chance
Saudi Aramco and Gulf shippers keep loading aggressively despite the blockade threat, using tighter scheduling, naval monitoring, and higher risk premiums. The market reads the 10.35 Mbpd flow figure as evidence that Hormuz is impaired but not shut.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.5%
- Industrials +1.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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