Possible scenario
Retaliatory Escalation
20% Chance
Ukraine may respond with long-range drone attacks on Russian logistics, airbases, or energy infrastructure to impose costs for continued civilian strikes. The main market channel would be oil-risk pricing if Russian refining or export infrastructure is affected.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
- XOM+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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