Possible scenario
Western Security Package
15% Chance
The incident accelerates EU and Romanian support for Moldovan radar, counter-drone systems, and border surveillance. This outcome is stabilizing if framed as defensive aid, but it still deepens Moldova's security alignment with the West.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.2%
- Technology +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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