Possible scenario
Contained Diplomatic Crisis
45% Chance
Moldova treats the officer's injury as a serious but contained violation, while Russia denies deliberate targeting. The EU, Romania, and NATO issue condemnations and offer technical help, but neither Chisinau nor Moscow moves toward direct confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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