Possible scenario
Soft-Landing Rally Extends
45% Chance
The most likely path is a continuation of the risk-on move because the new high follows softer core PCE and lower near-term Fed hike expectations. Investors treat the breakout as confirmation that earnings resilience and disinflation can coexist, at least over the next few sessions.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Bitcoin Up
- Copper Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.9%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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