Possible scenario
Fed Pushback Caps Gains
25% Chance
Fed officials or market pricing push back against the idea that soft PCE ended the 2026 hiking debate. The S&P 500 struggles to extend the breakout as yields rise and investors trim exposure to rate-sensitive growth shares.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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