Possible scenario
Data Volatility Returns
20% Chance
The new high remains vulnerable to the same data sensitivity seen after the early-September jobs selloff. Incoming labor, inflation or activity indicators create a two-sided market reaction as investors reassess whether the Fed can pause.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Down
- Copper Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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