Possible scenario
Logistics Remain Fragile
28% Chance
The use of foreign tankers keeps some Iraqi barrels available, but vessel availability, insurance limits and port scheduling remain unreliable. India avoids an acute shortage, yet refiners are forced to keep a larger mix of spot purchases from West Africa, the Americas and domestic inventories.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
Tickers
- FRO+0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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