Possible scenario
Discounted Iraqi Flows Normalize
45% Chance
Indian refiners successfully use foreign-controlled tanker capacity to lift heavily discounted Iraqi crude despite the recent Hormuz disruption. Baghdad’s resumed tanker operations and steep October pricing keep barrels moving to India, easing near-term supply fears and reducing India’s need to bid aggressively for alternative crude.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
- FRO+1.2%
- +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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