Possible scenario
Deal Holds Narrowly
35% Chance
The Trump administration keeps the diesel understanding with Moscow in place and frames it as an inflation-control measure before winter. Kyiv publicly denies accepting limits but reduces the most visible attacks to preserve US intelligence and air-defense support.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.6%
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
- VLO-1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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