Possible scenario
Alliance Rift Deepens
20% Chance
The dispute shifts from energy policy into the broader US-Ukraine relationship. Trump uses the six ignored requests to justify tighter conditions on military aid, while European governments try to prevent a visible split before winter.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Technology -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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