Possible scenario
Military Retaliation Escalates
18% Chance
The United States or Gulf allies could respond militarily if ship damage, crew injuries, or repeat attacks make deterrence look insufficient. That would raise the probability of a broader U.S.-Iran confrontation and produce a sharper risk-off move.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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