Possible scenario
Gulf Loading Disrupted
30% Chance
A more damaging outcome is that insurers, tanker owners, and charterers temporarily reduce sailings to Gulf loading points even without a formal blockade. This would tighten near-term crude availability, push Brent higher, and hit fuel-sensitive sectors.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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