Possible scenario
Escorts Contain Disruption
42% Chance
The most likely near-term outcome is that U.S., UK, Saudi, and Emirati naval escorts keep Gulf oil flows moving despite repeated Iranian claims of vessel strikes. Tanker rates and war-risk insurance remain elevated, but markets conclude the attacks are disruptive rather than a full closure of Hormuz or Gulf export lanes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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