Possible scenario
Sanctions And Interdictions
27% Chance
The G7 moves from warnings to targeted economic and maritime enforcement. Measures focus on IRGC-linked shippers, drone components, and suspected weapons routes from Iran to Yemen, raising friction without necessarily triggering open conflict.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.