Possible scenario
Energy Corridor Disruption
23% Chance
The Houthis retain leverage over a crucial Yemeni oil corridor and continue threatening regional energy flows. Even without a wider war, the disruption keeps a persistent geopolitical premium in crude and increases shipping costs.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.8%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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