Possible scenario
Diplomatic Containment
38% Chance
The G7 statement leads to back-channel diplomacy involving Oman, Saudi Arabia, and European officials. Iran does not formally admit supplying the Houthis but slows shipments enough to reduce attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping lanes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.6%
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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