Possible scenario
Protests Localize or Spread
20% Chance
Because the detainee was allegedly held with a bullet in his back, immigrant-rights groups are likely to organize demonstrations. The baseline is a local protest cycle, but the prior 2025 anti-ICE unrest and Texas National Guard deployment make a larger flare-up plausible.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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