Possible scenario
Talks Resume
20% Chance
The submarine delivery strengthens Israel's deterrent posture but also increases pressure on Washington, Oman, and European governments to prevent another Israel-Iran exchange. Tehran may use the moment to seek sanctions relief while arguing that Israeli military moves justify renewed guarantees.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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