Possible scenario
Maritime Friction Rises
25% Chance
Iran treats the new Israeli submarine as a reason to increase maritime pressure rather than strike Israel directly. The most likely friction points are the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Red Sea approaches, and Israeli-linked commercial shipping.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
- Consumer Services -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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