Possible scenario
Naval Retaliation Escalates
22% Chance
A tanker strike causing casualties or clear evidence of Iranian command involvement triggers a U.S.-led military response. The confrontation remains mostly maritime at first, but markets price the risk of direct U.S.-Iran conflict.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +5.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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