Possible scenario
Mediated De-escalation
25% Chance
Regional mediators move quickly to prevent a broader naval conflict, linking safe passage to renewed talks over sanctions relief and Iranian access to frozen funds. Iran preserves leverage while signaling it does not want a direct war with the United States.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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