Possible scenario
Escorts Contain Attacks
35% Chance
Iran or Iran-aligned units continue limited attacks and intimidation, but Washington, London, and Gulf navies expand convoy protection rather than immediately striking Iranian territory. Tanker traffic slows and insurance costs rise, but the Strait of Hormuz remains partly open.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.0%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.