Possible scenario
Retaliation Cycle Widens
30% Chance
Russia responds with cyber operations or selective strikes against Ukrainian digital infrastructure, framing the Sberbank hub attack as an escalation against state systems. The impact depends on whether retaliation stays in cyberspace or extends to physical infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.6%
- Finance -0.2%
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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