Possible scenario
Legal Standoff Extends
30% Chance
The White House may seek emergency appellate relief rather than immediately comply, arguing that the judiciary cannot dictate who flies with the president. This prolongs uncertainty but remains primarily a legal and institutional dispute rather than a broad market event.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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