Possible scenario
GOP Lead Stabilizes
38% Chance
Trump and Senate Republican leader John Thune successfully nationalize the race around Republican turnout, Senate control, and loyalty to Trump’s endorsement of Darline Graham. Annie Andrews keeps a money advantage, but Graham’s narrow polling lead becomes more durable as GOP voters consolidate.
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Finance +0.1%
- Healthcare -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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