Possible scenario
Rates Repricing Dominates
22% Chance
The selloff becomes less about AI fundamentals and more about inflation and discount rates. After the recent inflation shock, investors focus on Treasury yields, breakevens and whether the Federal Reserve can signal patience without tightening financial conditions further.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.9%
- Utilities -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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