Possible scenario
AI De-Rating Continues
38% Chance
Investors continue trimming exposure to AI-linked megacap stocks after the $1 trillion market-value wipeout. The most likely continuation is an orderly valuation reset rather than a systemic break, with selling concentrated in semiconductors, cloud software and high-duration growth shares.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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