Possible scenario
Wider Gulf Escalation
30% Chance
Abu Dhabi and Washington conclude that repeated strikes on Fujairah require a more forceful response against IRGC assets. Iran answers with broader maritime attacks, raising the risk premium across Gulf shipping and crude markets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Bitcoin Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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