Possible scenario
Negotiated De-Escalation
20% Chance
Oman, Qatar, and possibly China push Tehran and Abu Dhabi toward a maritime pause to prevent a larger Gulf war. The market reaction turns risk-on if tankers resume normal calls and insurers hold off on the steepest war-risk surcharges.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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