Possible scenario
Managed Maritime Containment
42% Chance
The UAE, U.S. Fifth Fleet, and regional partners expand escorts, air defenses, and surveillance around Fujairah without launching major retaliatory strikes. Iran-linked attacks continue at a lower tempo, but the port remains open and energy flows are not materially interrupted.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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