Possible scenario
Bottleneck Persists
30% Chance
The release adds barrels, but the main constraint remains refining capacity and the availability of diesel-rich crude. Diesel cracks stay high, limiting the policy impact and keeping pressure on transport-heavy industries.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Industrials -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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