Possible scenario
Races Become Toss-Ups
38% Chance
The Cook Political Report downgrade proves to be the start of a broader reassessment rather than a one-off ratings tweak. Texas Republicans Ken Paxton and Monica De La Cruz remain competitive, but polling and fundraising data keep moving both Texas and Florida into genuinely uncertain territory.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
- Finance -0.2%
- Utilities +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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