Possible scenario
Release Or Deportation
20% Chance
Montenegro either rejects the US request on technical grounds or chooses a deportation route that avoids extradition to the United States. This would be a diplomatic setback for Washington and a propaganda win for Moscow, but still unlikely to carry broad market significance.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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