Possible scenario
Extradition Advances
45% Chance
Montenegro keeps the Rybar founder in custody and moves the case into a formal extradition track requested by the United States. This is the most likely path because Montenegro is a NATO member, has strong incentives to cooperate with US law enforcement, and can process the case through courts while deflecting Russian political pressure.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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