Possible scenario
Targeted Federal Expansion
45% Chance
DHS and ICE treat the Missouri arrest as evidence that noncitizen voting cases are discoverable through federal database matching. The most likely expansion is targeted rather than sweeping, with DOJ emphasizing individual prosecutions and state cooperation ahead of the November 2026 midterms.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.3%
- Technology +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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