Possible scenario
State Election Crackdowns
20% Chance
Republican-led states use the Missouri case to justify tighter citizenship verification, faster roll maintenance, and referrals to state prosecutors. The most realistic outcomes are administrative and legal rather than macroeconomic, with limited market spillover.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.1%
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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