Possible scenario
Court-Constrained Review
25% Chance
Civil-rights groups, Democratic attorneys general, and election officials challenge the administration's use of immigration databases against voter rolls. Courts are likely to preserve some authority for targeted checks while limiting bulk matching or rushed pre-election purges.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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