Possible scenario
Appeals Court Fight
24% Chance
The administration is likely to appeal even while complying, arguing the president has broad discretion over White House access. The legal fight becomes a First Amendment test, but near-term access depends on whether appellate judges disturb the district court order.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.