Possible scenario
Negotiated Service Fix
40% Chance
The most likely outcome is a negotiated resolution among SpaceX, the Pentagon, and Ukrainian officials that avoids a formal subpoena fight. SpaceX has strong incentives to preserve Pentagon funding and avoid a public confrontation over battlefield communications.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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